Today, we're diving into a topic that's been buzzing in the developer community – the impact of AI on our jobs. When I talk with fellow developers about AI, I get a mixed bag of reactions. Some feel like we're on the “developer Titanic,” silently bracing for an iceberg. Others just shrug it off, downplaying AI as just another tool in the toolbox.
But here's the thing – I don’t think there is a lot of talk about AI in the workplace. It's like this unspoken rule. Maybe it's because we're trying to avoid a tough conversation, or maybe it's the anxiety of being replaced. We've seen big names like Google, Facebook, and even Duolingo start to lean on AI more, replacing some roles. Yet, for software devs, the shift hasn't been as drastic... yet.
Now, about using tools like ChatGPT or Copilot – it's a bit of a hush-hush topic among devs. Everybody uses them, but often downplay their importance. They're called “handy little tools,” but we all know they sometimes churn out less-than-stellar code.
Drawing a parallel with the retail industry, I wonder if developers are like cashiers in the era of self-checkout machines. While automation has not eliminated the cashier role, while there is still a need for experienced cashiers to monitor self-checkout, the role has been transformed. And places probably aren’t training many new cashiers. Similarly, AI might not replace developers entirely but could redefine their roles. The real challenge emerges in getting training and experience - how will new developers gain the necessary skills in this environment if junior devs are a thing of the past?
From what I've seen, completely replacing developers with AI isn't going to be easy. There's a lot of nuance, and a lot of complex, human decisions that go into building and iterating software, especially legacy software. But, with AI getting better, teams might not need as many developers. What used to be a job for ten could soon be done by two or three. This means a tougher road for junior devs, as companies might start looking for fewer but more experienced people. Though, on the bright side, learning new skills has probably never been easier, thanks to tools like ChatGPT.
But I could be completely wrong, and what I said will be flipped on its head in a year or two, tools like ChatGPT and Copilot become SO efficient, that there might not be a need to hire a senior developer because a junior or mid-level dev armed with AI can do the job just fine. Companies won’t be willing to pay the high salaries of senior and staff engineers and those jobs will become a thing of the past like phone operators.
It’s hard to say what will happen in 2024, but it feels like a pivotal year for the future of software engineering.
That’s it for today and we’ll see you next week.
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